The 2010 Oscar Nominations: An Analysis
This year is a bit different for Oscar nominations, because of the decision to nix the Honorary Award, as well as that ten-nominees-for-Best-Picture thing. The nominees were announced this morning, and as such, they were wildly impressive. I have a few nitpicks here and there, but for the most part, I like what I see. Here are my thoughts on the main categories (but not predictions…yet). Later will come the tech award thoughts.
Best Picture:
“Avatar”
“The Blind Side”
“District 9″
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Precious”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”
The very obvious frontrunners in this list include “Avatar,” “The Hurt Locker” (which will win the whole thing), “Inglourious Basterds,” “Precious,” and “Up in the Air,” all excellent films. I can’t speak for “A Serious Man,” as I have not seen it, but the Coens should be glad they got a nod here, especially after the shutout at the Globes. “District 9″ and “Up” are nice semi-surprises, the former because it was a summer blockbuster and the latter because it’s the current frontrunner in another Picture-type category. “An Education” would’ve been a frontrunner had it not been for the five films listed above, but it’s nice to see, as it was indeed one of this year’s ten best movies. The odd one out, then, is “The Blind Side.” I am astounded that something so quality-deficient was nominated in this category, while critical darlings and audience favorites like “The Hangover,” “(500) Days of Summer,” and “Star Trek” were glossed over.
Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow, “Up in the Air”
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Lee Daniels, “Precious”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
One of the more obvious categories this season, it’s obviously a battle of the exes, with Bigelow and Cameron duking it out. Daniels hasn’t gotten the precursors he needs (or deserves), while Reitman is the current dark horse of the group. The AMPAS loves Tarantino, but the film is more like the 3rd choice on everybody’s list of what will win, after “The Hurt Locker” and “Avatar,” so he doesn’t have that huge of a chance here.
Best Actor in a Leading Role:
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”
Jeff Bridges probably has this in the bag, what with his list of fellow nominees. I have not seen “Crazy Heart” just yet, but he’s the most lauded of the group. Clooney, Firth, and Renner (again of the nominees) are right behind Bridges. Freeman, on the other hand, should not be nominated. He gave a good performance in a mild movie, and I could and will name five others that would’ve been more interesting choices. Sharlto Copley gave a brave, demanding performance in apocalyptic sci-fi thrillers “District 9,” and even though I haven’t seen him, Viggo Mortensen is said to have been haunting in “The Road.” Meanwhile, comedically, Matt Damon and Robert Downey Jr. were incendiary in, respectively, “The Informant!” and “Sherlock Holmes,” two of the best performances this year (plus, Downey won the Golden Globe), and Michael Stuhlbarg was lauded for his work in “A Serious Man.” An argument could also be made for Daniel Day-Lewis in “Nine.” Replace Freeman with any one of those, and you have an infinitely more interesting race.
Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Right now, though it shouldn’t be, the race is between Bullock and Streep. Considering that Sidibe topples both of them in my opinion is beside the point, but Bullock was indeed quite good in a very bad movie, and Streep embodied the spirit of Julia Child. Mirren and Mulligan sort of exist as dark horses in the background of this list, because the other three have better shots at winning.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
Matt Damon, “Invictus”
Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
The obvious locks here are Harrelson, whose nomination for “The Messenger” was practically unstoppable, and Waltz, who has already kind of walked away with the award. Damon was great in “Invictus” (better than Freeman, for my money), but he’s nominated for the wrong movie in the wrong category. Plummer’s film was barely noticed, and Tucci’s work is lauded while the film he’s in is most certainly not.
Best Supporting Actress:
Penélope Cruz, “Nine”
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Crazy Heart”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Mo’Nique is the winner here, and I’m not even giving predictions. She should just clear her mantel. Nevertheless, Farmiga and Kendrick were both stunning in Reitman’s film, and Gyllenhaal has indeed been critically acclaimed. But Cruz, as InContention’s Guy Lodge recently Tweeted, was in a film that no one loves (and indeed is not very good) but wasn’t even the best in show; that would’ve been Marion Cotillard, injecting soul where there was none.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
“District 9″
“An Education”
“In the Loop”
“Precious”
“Up in the Air”
I like the out-of-the-box thinking in regards to the nominations for “District 9″ and “In the Loop,” even if the latter is unseen by me. The former nomination is very well-deserved, as the writers juggled three different major aspects of film in one screenplay, and the latter reminds of the ballsy move to nominate the fantastic comedic writing of “In Bruges” last year. The winner will be “Up in the Air,” that much is certain, but “An Education” has a good chance here. “Precious” is more remembered, even by me, for its direction, tonality, and acting than the writing, which is brilliant in and of itself, but it has no chance.
Best Original Screenplay:
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“The Messenger”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”
One can’t go terribly wrong in predicting a win for Pixar in this category, even if they rarely do win, but I think Mark Boal’s sparse, gritty, honest screenplay for “The Hurt Locker” is nothing but a lock. The Coens have a good chance, as do the four people nominated for “The Messenger,” while Tarantino looms in the background for “Inglourious Basterds.”
Best Animated Feature Film:
“Coraline”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Princess and the Frog”
“The Secret of Kells”
“Up”
“Up” has no chance to lose here, what with its Best Picture nomination, but I have to say I’d laugh if it lost to “Fantastic Mr. Fox,” which for me was the better film. “Coraline” came out too early to win, while “The Secret of Kells” suffers from being completely unknown to the general population (including me). “The Princess and the Frog” is the dark horse here.
Best Foreign Language Film:
“Ajami” (Israel)
“The Milk of Sorrow” (Peru)
“A Prophet” (France)
“The Secret in Their Eyes” (Argentina)
“The White Ribbon” (Germany)
There are only two clear-cut winners here: “A Prophet” and “The White Ribbon.” Both have gotten raves, and feature excellent directors. “Ajami” and “The Secret in Their Eyes” are more crowd-pleasers than anything, while “The Milk of Sorrow” is easily the dark horse, with excellent acclaim all around. Still, the bigger the director, the better shot his film has of winning. Michael Haneke (of “The White Ribbon”) directed the acclaimed “Caché” from 2006, while Jacques Audiard (of “A Prophet”) has been around for years and whose “The Beat That My Heart Skipped” is one of the best films of the decade.
